Your War & NCBR return, on live airspace data —
and every price defensible.
Paste your book — aircraft, airport, limit. The Console aggregates peak exposure per airport, attaches current airspace risk, and hands you a dated evidence pack plus a CSV for the Lloyd's return — no integration, no API to wire up.
Built around the AVN52 7-day reprice/cancel lever — the data that tells you when to pull it, and the audit trail to defend it afterward.
Console Solo $99/mo · Team $399/mo — no card, no sales call. Full grid on the pricing page.
Directional estimate calibrated to publicly-reported March-2026 aviation war-risk figures (Lockton, Business Standard, trade press). Not a bound quote. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer.
Demonstration — an example of a Console record. Sections 1–2 are live engine data; 3–6 unlock with a trial.
Unlocks the cited sources, filing & watchlist alerts · $99/mo after · no card for trial
Already have the Console? Open this route in your Console →
A free directional estimate for one route — the same engine that scores your whole book at once in the return pack.
If you underwrite aviation war-risk, you know this list.
- ▸Pricing on week-old PDFs while war-risk premiums change in hours.
- ▸Defending methodology to PRA / Lloyd's HHC with whatever your data vendor gave you last week.
- ▸Reading AVN52 clauses your data vendors don't understand.
- ▸Building Excel aggregations every Friday for the syndicate report.
- ▸Watching loss data lag reality by quarters.
- ▸Watching capacity withdraw in hours when an event drops.
A broker calls Friday at 5pm — premium on the DEL–AMS hull, by Monday close. Your last data PDF is Tuesday's. The route now crosses three FIRs that weren't yellow when that PDF was written.
You quote on instinct, or you miss the line.
Whether the answer was right depends on data you couldn't have. That's the gap FlySafe closes.
From your book to a filed return — three steps, no call.
The War & NCBR return is compulsory and annual — and the week it's due, someone rebuilds the exposure picture by hand. The Console builds it from your book in one sitting, dated and cited.
Paste your book.
Closes: rebuilding Excel aggregations by hand. Aircraft · airport · limit, straight from the binder or a spreadsheet into the NCBR Return Helper. Peak exposure aggregates per airport automatically.
Current airspace risk attaches itself.
Closes: pricing on week-old PDFs. Each airport carries the live risk level with regulator source-flags (EASA CZIB, FAA SFAR, NOTAMs) — the same continuously-refreshed engine behind the calculator above.
Export the dated pack.
Closes: defending the price with "the vendor said so." CSV for the filing, printable PDF record for the file — reference number, UTC timestamp, who ran it, and the cited sources behind every level.
Pin the FIRs and routes on your book to a watchlist — the Console emails you when a risk level changes, so the AVN52 7-day reprice/cancel window stays actionable. Score history per FIR is retained daily for the trend view your bordereau commentary needs.
The record, block by block
Route-level view of the same engine that builds your return pack — scroll through the artifact.
Route airspace-risk report
Route ZRH→DXB carries a risk index of 64 / 100 — HIGH band. A lower-risk reroute is available (see §2). Highest exposure at OIIX (78).
| # | FIR | Name | CC | Score | Level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZRH | origin · departure | — | — | ||
| 1 | LSAS | Switzerland | CH | 12 | low |
| 2 | LIRR | Rome | IT | 11 | low |
| 3 | LGGG | Athens | GR | 24 | low |
| 4 | HECC | Cairo Official NOTAM | EG | 41 | moderate |
| 5 | OEJD | Jeddah Official NOTAMTraffic anomaly | SA | 38 | moderate |
| 6 | OIIX | Tehran Regulator bulletinGPS jammingConflict activity | IR | 78 | high |
| 7 | OMAE | Emirates Official NOTAM | AE | 31 | moderate |
| DXB | destination · arrival | — | — |
2,551 nm direct routing. A lower-risk reroute is available via LGGG → HECC → OEJD (+6% distance, max FIR risk 41) — avoids OIIX entirely.
- FACTOverflight restriction — several Western-registered carriers restricted in OIIX. since 2024-04 · source ↗
- FACTEASA advisory — Conflict Zone Information Bulletin, Tehran FIR · do not fly below FL320 CZIB-2026-04 · publ. 2026-05-12 · EASA ↗
- FACTActive NOTAMs — 14 active on route: OIIX (6) · OEJD (4) · HECC (3) · OMAE (1). Issuer text below; “notable” is our classifier, not the issuer’s grading.A0231/26 NOTAMN Q) OMAE/QRTCA/IV/BO/W/000/999/ A) OMAE B) 2607141200 C) 2607282359 E) RESTRICTED AREA ACTIVE. AIRSPACE CLSD BLW FL140 WI 25NM…
- OBSERVEDFlySafe monitoring — 2 FIRs with a higher-than-usual share of low position-accuracy (NACp) reports. Our own inference from ADS-B / telemetry — no cause implied, not an external report.
Data as of 2026-07-18. NOTAMs current to 2026-07-18. “FlySafe monitoring” items are inferences from telemetry, not external sources.
- [a] Bilateral overflight registry — FlySafe curated
- [b] EASA Conflict Zone Information Bulletins
- [c] FAA & national NOTAM offices
- [d] USGS earthquake feed · FlySafe ADS-B monitoring
Proceeding (documented) — southern routing via HECC → OEJD avoids the elevated segment; PIC briefed, owner informed.
A price basis you can defend — not “the vendor said so”
0–100 index with band, confidence and coverage, recomputed continuously — the route-level input behind a war-risk quote, current to the hour instead of Tuesday’s PDF.
Exposure per FIR, signal by signal
Every FIR the hull crosses, scored and tagged — the granularity your portfolio view and the AVN52 reprice decision actually need.
What Lloyd’s IMV calls documented judgment
Dated citations per elevated FIR — EASA bulletin references, raw NOTAM text — with our own telemetry marked separately as OBSERVED. Falsifiable inputs your validation team can pick apart, per IMV §2.10.1.
The quote file writes itself
Decision, written rationale, name, UTC timestamp — the dated basis-of-decision artifact that turns “we quoted on instinct” into a defensible file.
Verifiable by the validation team — no account
Every saved record carries a public authenticity link. Hand the PDF to internal audit or PRA years later — the link still answers.
Solo $99/mo · Team $399/mo · no card · first record in ~10 minutes
Why the record holds up in front of a validator.
"A change to a third-party provider view of risk cannot be automatically accepted as representing an update to the syndicate's view of risk."— Lloyd's Internal Model Validation Guidance, January 2023
Translation: you need an audit trail that lets you validate FlySafe against your own profile — not a black-box index. Every score in the pack points back to the dated public sources that moved it, and the methodology paper maps to Lloyd's four validation template categories (Validation Review Signposting · Data Directory · Data Audit · Model Validation Evidence), so your validation team lifts the artifacts straight into theirs.
- → Per-airport peak exposure + current risk level
- → The dated, cited sources behind each level (EASA CZIB ref, NOTAM IDs, conflict-event signals)
- → Reference number, UTC timestamp, who ran it
- → CSV for the filing · printable PDF for the file
- × 100% accuracy. Scores are validated against a multi-signal event ground truth; every score carries its scoring_version and history is never rewritten — misses stay on the record.
- × A black box. Expert judgments are documented and falsifiable per IMV §2.10.1 — you can pick them apart.
- × Uniform depth everywhere. 334 FIRs are scored daily across four coverage tiers — every score ships with its confidence and coverage tier, so you can see exactly how solid the ground is under each number.
Sources cited: Lloyd's Internal Model Validation Guidance (January 2023) · Lloyd's Model Change Guidance (June 2025) · Marsh, Aviation War-Risk Coverage Presents Challenges (August 2023). Per-event analysis with cited sources: briefings archive.
How to start.
Solo $99/mo · Team $399/mo (up to 5 seats, shared journal)
The NCBR Return Helper and watchlist ship on Console plans — most desks pick Team. 14-day free trial, no card, no call.
Want scores flowing into your own PAS or pricing engine instead? The same engine runs as a REST API (single GET, ~50 ms, HMAC-signed webhooks) on request-based tiers with a free sandbox — see API plans. Optional, not the default.
Create your account
One click in your inbox opens the Console — generate the return pack in the 14-day free trial, no card, no sales call. Want the methodology paper or a sandbox API key instead? Say so here.
Specific questions we get from syndicates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common search queries answered with current status, FIR codes, and source citations.
- Do we have to integrate anything?
- No — it is self-serve, no call. Paste your book (aircraft · airport · limit) into the Console and get a dated per-airport peak-exposure + airspace-risk pack for your War & NCBR return, plus a CSV for the filing. Between returns, pin FIRs or routes to a watchlist and the Console emails you when a risk level changes — no code required.
- How is it priced?
- Console Solo is $99/month (one seat), Team is $399/month (up to 5 seats, shared journal) — the NCBR Return Helper, watchlist alerts, and exportable records ship on both. Every account starts with a 14-day free trial: no card, no sales call. If you later want scores flowing into your own PAS or pricing engine, the same data runs as a REST API on request-based tiers (free sandbox to evaluate). Everything is on the pricing page.
- How does this integrate with Subscribe / IRIS / our PAS?
- The Console needs no integration — CSV/Excel out, PDF record per check. The API adds REST + HMAC-signed webhooks: if your PAS exposes a webhook endpoint, score-change alerts can post there directly. For anything custom, leave a note in the account form — a real person replies by email within one business day.
- What happens to our model-adequacy story under Lloyd's IMV?
- FlySafe outputs include per-FIR source lineage and stated falsifiability criteria per IMV §2.10.1. The methodology paper structure is built to map to Lloyd's four template categories — Validation Review Signposting, Data Directory & Data Policy Evidence, Data Audit Framework, Model Validation Evidence. Your validation team retains ownership of the syndicate's view of risk; we provide the artifacts.
- What if FlySafe disagrees with our underwriter judgment?
- Then you're doing your job. Per Lloyd's IMV: "A change to a third-party provider view of risk cannot be automatically accepted as representing an update to the syndicate's view of risk." FlySafe is one input — the final view of risk is yours.
- How do you handle gateway-blocked sources (London QVA, Toulouse MetGate)?
- Currently out of scope. We document the gap publicly in the methodology paper. For carriers whose risk depends on those advisories, we recommend supplementing with direct subscription and flag the limitation openly.
- What's your current calibration error?
- Accuracy is measured against a documented event ground truth, every scoring change ships with a validation run, and historical scores are never rewritten. The methodology paper spells out the full validation protocol against a multi-signal event ground truth. Rather than quote a headline calibration figure, we point at the record itself: versioned scores, never rewritten, hits and misses alike — the June 2026 Middle East closures are the worked example. Request the paper in the account form below.
- How do you handle AVN52 nuclear / UNSC-5 termination triggers?
- Both are automatic exclusions in market wording — no data vendor scores around them. Our role is to score the pre-trigger risk landscape so reprice/cancel decisions are informed before clauses activate. Per AJG's and Cambridge International & Comparative Law Quarterly analysis of AVN52E, that's where the underwriting value lives.
FlySafe provides automated computation of numerical indices from publicly available data. Indices and packs are inputs to your underwriting and validation processes — they do not constitute insurance advice, a certified risk rating, or a regulatory submission, and the final view of risk remains the syndicate's. See Terms of Service.
Built for every aviation role
The same airspace-risk engine, tailored to how your team works.