2026 Airspace Disruptions: Year in Progress

Q1 2026: Key Numbers

Continuing Disruption Patterns

GPS interference continues at levels comparable to late 2025 across the established hotspots. The eastern Mediterranean, Middle East, and Baltic regions remain persistently affected. Incident reporting volumes suggest a plateau rather than further escalation — the interference has stabilized at what appears to be a new operational baseline.

Ukraine airspace remains closed, now exceeding 1,400 consecutive days. There is no indication of reopening in the near term. The closure continues to reshape European routing patterns and has become a permanent planning factor for airlines operating east-west routes.

Drone activity at airports has continued through Q1, with incidents reported at facilities in Europe and the Middle East. Counter-drone installations are increasingly common at major airports, though the technology remains in various stages of deployment and certification.

February 28: The 12-FIR Gulf Shutdown

The most significant single event of 2026 to date occurred on February 28, when twelve flight information regions across the Persian Gulf were closed simultaneously. This was the largest coordinated airspace shutdown since the 2010 Eyjafjallajokull volcanic ash event and affected the primary routing corridor between Europe and Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania.

Eight sovereign states issued airspace declarations within hours of each other. The closures lasted between 6 and 72 hours depending on the specific FIR. Over 500 flights were diverted in the first six hours, and an estimated 2,000+ flights were cancelled over the following days. For detailed analysis, see the 12-FIR closure data page.

EASA CZIB Renewals

EASA has maintained and in several cases expanded its Conflict Zone Information Bulletin coverage through Q1 2026. Over 20 CZIBs remain active, covering airspace in and around Ukraine, Russia, the Middle East, parts of Africa (including Ethiopia, Somalia, Libya, and Sudan), and portions of Central and South Asia.

The renewal cycle reflects the persistent nature of the threats: none of the major CZIBs issued in 2024-2025 have been downgraded or withdrawn. Several have been updated with expanded geographic coverage or elevated risk characterizations based on evolving conditions. The CZIB framework has effectively become a standing conflict zone map for European aviation operators.

Technology Response: eLoran and Galileo OSNMA

Galileo OSNMA (Open Service Navigation Message Authentication) has entered operational service, providing the first cryptographic authentication of civil navigation satellite signals. OSNMA allows receivers to verify that navigation messages originate from genuine Galileo satellites rather than ground-based spoofers. Adoption depends on receiver hardware and software upgrades, which are proceeding through the avionics supply chain.

eLoran (enhanced Long-Range Navigation) deployment continues in parts of Europe and Asia. eLoran provides a terrestrial positioning signal that is both GPS-independent and extremely difficult to jam or spoof due to its high signal power and low frequency. The UK and South Korea have operational eLoran infrastructure, and several European states are progressing deployment plans, driven directly by the GPS interference threat.

Together, OSNMA and eLoran represent the two primary technology responses to the GPS vulnerability exposed over the past three years: OSNMA hardens the satellite signal against spoofing, while eLoran provides an entirely independent terrestrial alternative. Full deployment of both systems across the global aviation fleet will take years, but the direction of investment is now clear.

Outlook for the Rest of 2026

Based on Q1 patterns and the underlying geopolitical conditions, the key factors for the remainder of 2026 include:

• Middle East tensions remain the primary driver of large-scale airspace closures and war risk insurance volatility
• GPS interference in the Baltic and eastern Mediterranean is likely to persist at current levels absent a significant change in the regional security environment
• Counter-drone technology deployments at major airports will expand, reducing but not eliminating drone-related disruptions
• OSNMA receiver adoption will grow through avionics updates, providing incremental spoofing protection
• eLoran infrastructure expansion will continue, with potential new operational sites in continental Europe

This page will be updated as new developments occur. For detailed quarterly analysis, see the FlySafe reports archive.