ReportPreview
Q2 2026 Airspace Disruption Report
Preview (April 2026)
Preliminary preview of Q2 2026 airspace disruption dynamics, written in late April 2026. Full quarterly report published at end of Q2 with updated data.
Q1 2026 Retrospective
Q1 was dominated by the February 2026 Gulf closure cascade (12 FIRs simultaneously closed over 5 days), generating approximately $2.1B in airline loss during peak disruption. The March UAE precautionary closures added a further four short-duration events. Full Q1 retrospective: Q1 2026 report.
Q2 Headline Themes
- ›Post-Gulf stabilisation — principal Gulf FIRs have returned to normal operation. EASA CZIBs on OIIX, ORBB, and OSDI remain active. Insurance market premium elevation persists.
- ›Pakistan-India closure enters year 2 — OPKR/OPLR remain closed to Indian carriers, no public timeline for reopening.
- ›Baltic GPS activity — continuing at elevated levels consistent with 2025 baseline. No new route suspensions.
- ›Space weather watch — Solar Cycle 25 peak continuing. March 2026 G5 event; Q2 may see further severe activity.
- ›Sahel and Venezuela advisories — remain active without notable change.
What We Are Watching
- ›Any indication of Pakistan-India reopening signals.
- ›Continued or renewed Middle East escalation post the February cascade.
- ›Ukraine-adjacent airspace dynamics into summer 2026.
- ›New regional events that have not yet surfaced.
Preview published April 2026 with partial quarter data. See Terms of Service.