By: FlySafe Research
On February 24, 2022, Ukrainian airspace closed entirely to civil aviation. More than four years later, that closure remains absolute — and the surrounding airspace restrictions across Russia, Belarus, and parts of Moldova continue to reshape how the world flies between Europe and Asia. FlySafe analysis shows that the combined restricted zone now represents one of the largest and most consequential airspace closures in modern aviation history, affecting route planning, flight times, fuel costs, and competitive dynamics across the global airline industry.
This bulletin examines the current status of airspace restrictions, the alternative routes carriers have adopted, and the operational risks that remain for flights transiting adjacent regions.
Current Airspace Status: Ukraine, Russia, and Neighboring FIRs
Airspace status: Ukraine — fully closed to all civil aviation since February 24, 2022.
According to Safe Airspace, Ukraine's airspace has been completely closed since the onset of the security situation in early 2022. Russia, Belarus, and Moldova have also closed large sections of their own airspace near their FIR boundaries with Ukraine. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) maintains a Conflict Zone Information Bulletin (CZIB) that, as reported by SafeFly Aero, remains in force until at least July 31, 2026.
Moldova has partially reopened its airspace. Flights to Chisinau Airport (LUKK) are now possible through a narrow corridor on Moldova's western border within the LRBB/Bucharest FIR. However, this exception is limited in scope and does not restore broader transit capability through the region.
The Russian Federation, in a reciprocal measure, has withdrawn overflight rights for airlines from over 35 countries and territories, including all EU member states, the United Kingdom, the United States, Canada, Norway, Switzerland, and Iceland. As noted in a DLR research paper, Russian airspace near the Ukrainian border remains closed to all civil aviation without exception. The closed Russian airspace alone encompasses approximately 17 million square kilometers — roughly twice the size of the continental United States, according to The Flying Engineer.
A working group was established on March 16, 2026, to explore a potential phased reopening of Ukrainian airspace. However, as SafeFly Aero emphasizes, this effort remains in the planning stage only. No actual reopening has occurred, and no timeline has been confirmed.
Operational Risks in Adjacent Airspace
The closure of Ukrainian and significant portions of Russian airspace is not merely an administrative restriction. The underlying risks to civil aviation in the region remain substantial and well-documented.
Based on publicly available NOTAMs and safety bulletins, Safe Airspace identifies the primary risk as "an unintended targeting of civil aircraft by military systems near the Russia-Ukraine border, including misidentification." This assessment references historical precedents — notably the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014 and Ukraine International Airlines Flight PS752 in 2020 — both cases in which civil aircraft were brought down in or near zones of heightened security activity.
SafeFly Aero further specifies that operators should maintain a minimum 200-nautical-mile clearance from active security zones, with specific guidance to maintain 200NM clearance from the Crimean coast. Additionally, all operators are advised to treat GNSS (GPS) as unreliable within 500 kilometers of Ukrainian borders due to widespread GPS/GNSS jamming and spoofing activity that has been extensively documented across the region.
EASA has issued warnings against flying not only over Ukraine but also over portions of Moldova, Russia, and Belarus. Several countries have gone further, prohibiting their registered operators from using Russian airspace near the Ukrainian FIR boundaries entirely, citing the persistent risk posed by the ongoing security situation.
Recommendation: Operators planning routes in the broader Eastern European region should consult current NOTAMs for the UKFV, UKDV, UKOV, UKLV (Ukraine), UMKK (Belarus), and URRV, UUWV (western Russia) FIRs, and factor GPS/GNSS degradation into navigation contingency planning.
How Airlines Have Rerouted: Europe-Asia Detours
The closure of both Ukrainian and Russian airspace has fundamentally altered the routing calculus for flights between Europe and East Asia — historically one of the most profitable long-haul markets in commercial aviation.
The Scale of Disruption
Prior to 2022, the shortest great-circle routes between major European hubs and East Asian destinations transited Russian airspace. This was the standard routing for decades. The closure has forced carriers to find alternatives, and the impact on flight times and economics has been significant.
According to a DLR academic study, the Finnair route from Helsinki to Beijing has seen an increase of 1,729 nautical miles, adding nearly four hours of flight time. Euronews reports that British Airways' London to Tokyo service has extended from 12 to 14 hours, while Finnair's Helsinki to Tokyo route — once one of the fastest connections between the two continents — has become a 13-hour journey, up from approximately nine hours previously.
The NBAA documented the challenge from a business aviation perspective: a flight from Saudi Arabia to Japan that previously routed north or east through Russian airspace must now detour southeast through India, adding substantial time, fuel burn, and emissions.
Europe-Asia passenger traffic declined from 25.7% of European intercontinental traffic in 2019 to 15.4% in 2022, according to the DLR study — a reflection of both the operational difficulty and increased cost of serving these routes.
The Caucasus Corridor
One of the most notable developments has been the emergence of the Caucasus corridor as a critical alternative routing. As reported by Business Insider, airlines are threading through a narrow band of airspace passing through Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan. At its narrowest point, this corridor is just 100 miles wide, situated between Russian and Iranian airspace.
This corridor has absorbed significant volumes of detoured traffic as carriers seek alternatives to both the closed Russian airspace to the north and restricted airspace across parts of the Middle East. As of March 2026, Business Insider notes that airspace over Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Israel, Bahrain, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates has been closed or partially closed at various times, further compressing available routing options.
Affected routes: Virtually all Europe-East Asia services operated by EU, UK, US, and Canadian carriers now use one of three primary alternative routings: the southern route via Central Asia and the Caucasus corridor, the polar route via the North Pacific (for some North America-Asia services), or extended southerly routings via the Middle East and South/Southeast Asia.
North Pacific Complications
For operators flying trans-Pacific routes in the North Pacific, the closures have eliminated normal diversion airports in Russia's Far East, such as Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky (UHPP). According to the NBAA, alternative diversion options now include Shemya and Cold Bay Airport (PACD) in Alaska, or — if weather conditions preclude those — significantly more distant options like Wake Island (PWAK) and Hawaii. This has implications for Extended-range Twin-engine Operational Performance Standards (ETOPS) planning and payload restrictions.
Which Airlines Still Fly Over Russia
Not all carriers are affected equally. The asymmetry in airspace access has created a significant competitive imbalance in the Europe-Asia market.
According to Euronews, only four European-affiliated carriers retain access to Russian airspace: Air Serbia, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus Airlines, and Belavia. These carriers can continue to operate direct routings that their Western European competitors cannot.
Chinese carriers hold a particularly significant advantage. Beijing Capital Airlines, China Eastern, China Southern, Air China, Xiamen Air, and Hainan Airlines all retain full access to Russian overflight, enabling them to offer substantially shorter flight times on Europe-Asia routes. A European airline manager, quoted by Euronews, stated that Western carriers cannot compete on a "level playing field" under these conditions.
Airlines have rerouted extensively, but the economic and operational cost is borne unevenly. Simple Flying reports that most European airlines have been forced to alter or suspend long-haul routes to East Asia entirely, with some flight times extended by as much as three hours. A source inside a major European airline described the situation to the Financial Times as "more serious" than previous disruptions, noting: "We have to go around Russia already, so it does make it very difficult."
Notably, as reported by The Flying Engineer, even some carriers that technically retain access to Russian airspace have chosen not to use it. Japan's JAL and ANA voluntarily avoid Russian airspace despite having technical access, following EASA warnings about air defense activity over western Russia.
What Passengers and Operators Should Know
For passengers, the practical implications of the airspace closures are experienced primarily through longer flight times and, in some cases, higher fares on routes between Europe and East Asia. A London-Tokyo journey that once took 12 hours now takes 14 or more on a Western carrier, while the same route on a Chinese carrier with Russian overflight access may remain closer to the pre-2022 duration.
Recommendation: Passengers booking Europe-Asia flights should be aware that:
- Flight times on Western carriers will be significantly longer than pre-2022 norms for routes that previously transited Russian airspace.
- Carriers with Russian overflight access (primarily Chinese and select Turkish/Serbian operators) may offer shorter routings, though this involves transit through airspace adjacent to the restricted zone.
- GPS/GNSS interference is documented within 500 kilometers of Ukrainian borders, which may affect flights routing through neighboring FIRs. Modern aircraft are equipped with inertial navigation systems that mitigate this risk, but passengers may occasionally notice flight path deviations.
For operators and flight planners, the key considerations include fuel uplift requirements for extended routings, ETOPS adequacy assessments for Pacific routes with reduced diversion options, GNSS interference mitigation procedures, and ongoing monitoring of NOTAM updates for the Caucasus corridor and Middle Eastern airspace, both of which have experienced intermittent additional restrictions.
Key Takeaway
The airspace over Ukraine remains fully closed as of March 2026, with no confirmed reopening timeline. Russian airspace restrictions continue to affect carriers from more than 35 countries. The combined effect has permanently altered global routing patterns for the foreseeable future, with the Caucasus corridor emerging as a narrow but critical alternative and flight times on affected routes extended by up to four hours.
FlySafe continues to monitor developments across all affected FIRs and will update this assessment as new NOTAMs and regulatory bulletins are issued. Operators and aviation professionals are encouraged to consult FlySafe analysis for current risk assessments before route planning in the Eastern European and Central Asian regions.
Analysis based on publicly available data only. FlySafe Research does not possess, access, or utilize any classified or non-public information. All assessments are derived from NOTAMs, EASA bulletins, ICAO publications, academic studies, and open-source aviation data.
Frequently Asked Questions
Which airlines are still flying over Russia?
As of 2026, only four European-affiliated carriers retain Russian overflight rights: Air Serbia, Turkish Airlines, Pegasus Airlines, and Belavia. Airlines from all EU member states, the UK, US, Canada, and several other nations are barred from Russian airspace. Some Asian carriers, including several from China, also retain access.
Do major Chinese carriers continue to operate through Russian airspace?
Yes. Beijing Capital Airlines, China Eastern, China Southern, Air China, Xiamen Air, and Hainan Airlines all maintain Russian overflight access. This gives them a significant routing advantage on Europe-Asia services compared to Western competitors that must detour around the restricted zone.
What alternative routes are now used for flights between Europe and China?
Western carriers primarily use three alternatives: a southerly routing through Central Asia and the Caucasus corridor (via Armenia, Georgia, and Azerbaijan), extended Middle Eastern routings via South and Southeast Asia, or polar routings over the North Pacific for certain transoceanic services. All alternatives add significant flight time — up to four hours on some city pairs.
Does Emirates fly through Russian airspace?
Emirates, as a UAE-based carrier, is not subject to the EU/US reciprocal bans on Russian overflight. However, routing decisions by Gulf carriers depend on operational factors and current NOTAM restrictions across multiple FIRs. Passengers should check with the carrier directly for specific route information on any given service.
- Украинское воздушное пространство остаётся полностью закрытым с февраля 2022 года, и, несмотря на создание рабочей группы в марте 2026 года, никакого конкретного плана или сроков открытия нет.
- Россия закрыла воздушное пространство для авиакомпаний из более чем 35 стран в качестве ответной меры — в совокупности ограниченная зона охватывает около 17 млн кв. км, что примерно вдвое превышает площадь континентальной части США.
Powered by B1KEY
Live tools behind the analysis.
The signals FlySafe writes about are also published live — continuously verified by the Sentinel pipeline.
Information is accurate as of the publication date. FlySafe uses exclusively publicly available data.