War-Risk Premium Calculator
Route in, indicative Additional Premium out. Live airspace risk translated to a per-departure AP rate — calibrated to publicly reported market ranges, refreshed continuously, not a week-old PDF.
Directional estimate calibrated to publicly-reported market ranges (Lloyd’s List, Joint War Committee, Lockton). Not a bound quote. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer.
A free account adds the cited, per-score audit trail — the exact dated sources behind this route, linkable for your file.
Get the cited audit trail — free, no card →- ✓ Live premium estimate, any covered route
- ✓ Risk score + contributing FIRs
- ✓ Per-departure or 7-day basis
- + Cited, dated EASA / FAA / GDELT source trail (audit-ready)
- + Defensibility Pack PDF for your validation file
- + Continuous monitoring of your whole book + alerts
Backtest metrics describe the underlying risk score, including events we missed — we publish negatives, not just hits. See methodology.
We detect early — here's the real lead time
Replay of FlySafe's risk score on real past escalations — actual backtest output, not a forward prediction. 6 of 8 crossed a high-risk flag 3–14 days before closure; the 2 we missed are shown too.
Illustrative replay of the underlying risk score on historical events — not a forward prediction, and not every event is caught. A "flag" = score ≥ 60. See methodology.
How aviation war-risk premium (AVN52 Additional Premium) is calculated
Aviation hull war cover runs at a low annual base rate. When an aircraft enters an excluded (AVN52) area, the annual policy is suspended for that transit and an Additional Premium (AP) applies — a percentage of hull value, per departure or per 7-day block, cancellable on 7 days’ notice. FlySafe translates a live route risk score into an indicative AP rate, anchored to publicly reported market ranges:
Rate bands calibrated to publicly-reported figures: peacetime APs of 0.05–0.2% of value, Strait-of-Hormuz transit premiums of 3–5% during active conflict, and the 2026 Iran-crisis spike from 0.2% to 1.0% inside 48 hours. The underlying risk score is produced by FlySafe’s continuously-refreshed engine across 25 monitored FIRs from 7 public source categories. Scoring methodology internals are proprietary; every score carries cited public sources for audit defensibility (the dated, file-ready Defensibility Pack is a paid deliverable).
Where we score — global FIR coverage
Coloured FIRs carry a live ML risk score (the layer behind the calculator above). GPS-monitored and coverage-area regions show their tier — full risk scoring for any FIR is available on request. Click any region to see its status.
Defend the number — get the audit-ready Pack
The estimate above is free. The paid Defensibility Pack adds the cited, dated EASA / FAA / GDELT sources behind every score — the trail you put in front of a PRA or Lloyd’s auditor — and Book Watch monitors your whole book with alerts. Tell us your role and book size.
War-risk calculator — FAQ
Common search queries answered with current status, FIR codes, and source citations.
- Is this a binding insurance quote?
- No. The figure is a directional estimate calibrated to publicly-reported war-risk market ranges. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer — use it as a pricing input alongside your own underwriting judgement, not as a bound quote.
- What is an Additional Premium (AP) and AVN52?
- Aviation hull war cover runs at a low annual base rate. AVN52 is the standard clause defining excluded (war/conflict) areas. When an aircraft enters an excluded area the annual policy is suspended for that transit and an Additional Premium applies — a percentage of hull value, charged per departure or per 7-day block, cancellable on 7 days’ notice.
- Where do the AP rate bands come from?
- They are calibrated to publicly-reported figures: peacetime APs of 0.05–0.2% of hull value, Strait-of-Hormuz transit premiums of 3–5% during active conflict, and the 2026 Iran-crisis spike from 0.2% to 1.0% within 48 hours. The underlying risk score is produced by FlySafe’s engine; the score-to-rate mapping is a transparent heuristic, not a proprietary premium dataset.
- How fresh is the risk score?
- The score is recomputed continuously from 7 public source categories across 25 monitored FIRs — minutes-to-hours, not the week-old PDFs underwriters typically price against.
- What is free, and what is paid?
- The public calculator is free, no signup: the premium estimate, risk score, and contributing FIRs for any covered route. Paid adds the audit-defensibility and scale underwriters pay for — the Defensibility Pack (cited, dated sources behind each score, mapped to Lloyd’s IMV) and Book Watch (continuous monitoring of your whole book with alerts). See FlySafe for insurance.
This calculator produces a directional estimate from publicly-available data and publicly-reported market ranges. It is not insurance advice, a binding quote, or a solicitation. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer. Estimates do not replace official NOTAMs, AIPs, broker quotes, or underwriting judgement. Reuse permitted under CC-BY 4.0 with attribution. See Terms of Service.