War-Risk Premium Calculator
Route in, indicative Additional Premium out. Live airspace risk translated to a per-departure AP rate — calibrated to publicly reported market ranges, refreshed continuously, not a week-old PDF.
Directional estimate calibrated to publicly-reported March-2026 aviation war-risk figures (Lockton, Business Standard, trade press). Not a bound quote. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer.
Demonstration — an example of a Console record. Sections 1–2 are live engine data; 3–6 unlock with a trial.
Unlocks the cited sources, filing & watchlist alerts · $99/mo after · no card for trial
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- ✓ Live premium estimate, any covered route
- ✓ Risk score + contributing FIRs
- ✓ Per-departure or 7-day basis
The premium math stays free. Paid is the defensible risk score behind the number — not a premium calculation:
- + Cited, dated EASA / FAA and conflict-event source trail behind every score
- + Save each check as a dated war-risk AP record — export as PDF for your file
- + Watchlist your routes & book — email alerts when a risk level changes
- + NCBR Return Helper — paste your book, get the per-airport peak-exposure pack + CSV for the Lloyd’s War & NCBR return
Scores are validated against a multi-signal event ground truth and stamped with their scoring_version — hits and misses alike stay on the record. See methodology.
The record, as it happened — June 2026
When the June 2026 Middle East closures unfolded, FlySafe tracked the shutdown FIR by FIR, with a dated timeline published as it happened — timestamped scores, never rewritten after the fact.
- 5 Jun OERD · OJAC Periphery first — Saudi (Jeddah) and Jordanian FIRs thin out — flagged in the moment, well before the core.
- 6 Jun OSTT Syria follows — The escalation widens into Syrian airspace.
- 7 Jun OISS · OBBB · OEDF The core goes dark — Iranian interior and the Gulf approaches — Shiraz, Bahrain, Dammam.
- 8 Jun OIIX Tehran reads last — The most heavily GPS-jammed airspace — our slowest read, about a day behind.
Full account with sources: how FlySafe flagged each FIR ahead of the NOTAMs. Detection of unfolding events on live data — not a forward geopolitical forecast.
How aviation war-risk premium (AVN52 Additional Premium) is calculated
Aviation hull war cover runs at a low annual base rate. When an aircraft enters an excluded (AVN52) area, the annual policy is suspended for that transit and an Additional Premium (AP) applies — a percentage of hull value, per departure or per 7-day block, cancellable on 7 days’ notice. FlySafe translates a live route risk score into an indicative AP rate, anchored to publicly reported market ranges:
Rate bands calibrated to publicly-reported aviation figures from the March 2026 Gulf crisis: $70–150k additional premium per widebody flight (≈0.05–0.10% of hull), ≈$36–48k per narrowbody India–Gulf rotation, business-jet trips up to $50k, and 50–500% premium increases across the region. Marine Hormuz rates (~5% of ship value per voyage) are deliberately not used — aviation APs run an order of magnitude below marine, and at the highest scores insurers withdraw cover rather than price it. The underlying risk score is produced by FlySafe’s continuously-refreshed engine across 334 daily-scored FIRs from 7 public source categories. Scoring methodology internals are proprietary; every score carries cited public sources for audit defensibility — saved as a dated, exportable record inside the Console.
Want the geographic view? The same FIRs, shaded by live score, are on the live map.
Defend the number — put it on the record
The estimate above is free. The Console adds the cited, dated EASA / FAA and conflict-event sources behind every score — saved as a dated war-risk AP record you can export as PDF for a PRA or Lloyd’s auditor — plus the NCBR Return Helper (paste your book → per-airport peak-exposure pack + CSV for the War & NCBR return) and a watchlist that emails you when a route or FIR on your book changes level. 14-day free trial, no card, no sales call.
War-risk calculator — FAQ
Common search queries answered with current status, FIR codes, and source citations.
- Is this a binding insurance quote?
- No. The figure is a directional estimate calibrated to publicly-reported war-risk market ranges. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer — use it as a pricing input alongside your own underwriting judgement, not as a bound quote.
- What is an Additional Premium (AP) and AVN52?
- Aviation hull war cover runs at a low annual base rate. AVN52 is the standard clause defining excluded (war/conflict) areas. When an aircraft enters an excluded area the annual policy is suspended for that transit and an Additional Premium applies — a percentage of hull value, charged per departure or per 7-day block, cancellable on 7 days’ notice.
- Where do the AP rate bands come from?
- They are calibrated to publicly-reported AVIATION figures from the March 2026 Gulf crisis: non-Gulf carriers quoted $70,000–150,000 in additional war-risk premium per widebody flight (≈0.05–0.10% of hull value), ₹30–40 lakh (≈$36–48k) per narrowbody India–Gulf rotation, Gulf business-jet trips up to $50,000, and premium increases of 50–500% across the region. Marine Hormuz rates (ship hull ~5% per voyage) are deliberately NOT used — aviation APs run an order of magnitude below marine. At the highest scores insurers typically suspend or withdraw cover rather than price it, and the calculator says so instead of quoting a number. The underlying risk score is produced by FlySafe’s engine; the score-to-rate mapping is a transparent heuristic, not a proprietary premium dataset.
- How fresh is the risk score?
- The score is recomputed continuously from 7 public source categories across 334 daily-scored FIRs — minutes-to-hours, not the week-old PDFs underwriters typically price against.
- What is free, and what is paid?
- The public calculator is free, no signup: the premium estimate, risk score, and contributing FIRs for any covered route. The Console ($99/mo, 14-day free trial) adds the audit-defensibility underwriters pay for — the cited, dated sources behind each score, every check saved as a dated record you can export as PDF, and a watchlist that emails you when a route or FIR on your book changes risk level. The premium math itself stays free — FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer; the Console sells the defensible score behind the number, not a premium calculation. See FlySafe for insurance.
This calculator produces a directional estimate from publicly-available data and publicly-reported market ranges. It is not insurance advice, a binding quote, or a solicitation. FlySafe is a data provider, not a broker or insurer. Estimates do not replace official NOTAMs, AIPs, broker quotes, or underwriting judgement. Reuse permitted under CC-BY 4.0 with attribution. See Terms of Service.