Beijing Capital (PEK) Observed Traffic '−88%' on 7 November 2026 — the Same One-Airport Step We Saw in October, and Still No Independent Count
- Our count at Beijing Capital fell from about 274 movements a day to 26 on 7 November, in a step after 15:00 UTC on 6 November, and read 0–3 an hour through 8 November.
- Tianjin next door, the wider north-China sample, our worldwide total and Capital's weather all read ordinary or close to it. That pattern usually means our receivers lost the airport — and the same thing happened from 30 September to 16 October, ending in a single day.
- We have no independent count at Capital to prove it either way, our feed does not cover Beijing Daxing, and our notice set for the Beijing FIR was last refreshed on 1 November. Check your airline and the airport for the status of any flight.
Advisory timeline — how active is this episode
Our feed sees part of Beijing Capital's traffic on an ordinary day, and the count is noisy: 139–362 observed movements a day across 17 October – 5 November, a 274/day median. Within a day the profile is steady: on 5 and 6 November the four three-hour blocks from 00:00 to 12:00 UTC (08:00–20:00 Beijing time) each read 57–69. The last ordinary hour is 15:00 UTC on 6 November — 10 movements, the same as the 15:00 hour on the 5th. Between 16:00 and 23:59 UTC our feed holds 1 movement on 6 November against 31 in the same hours of 5 November, and from midnight UTC on 7 November every hour reads 0–3. 7 November totals 26; 8 November reads 18 so far and has not finished arriving. Three-hour blocks, 5–7 November:
Fig. 1 — Observed departures + arrivals at Beijing Capital (PEK) in each three-hour UTC block, 5–7 November 2026 (Beijing time = UTC+8); 7 November is provisional · Data as of 9 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC · PEK series settled through 5 Nov; 6 Nov plotted as a recount (stored row clipped at 214); 7 Nov provisional; 8 Nov partial, not plotted; NOTAM set refreshed to 1 Nov · Source: Observed movement records for ZBAA from a crowdsourced ADS-B receiver network, as collected by FlySafe monitoring.
Airports in the exposure zone
| Airport | Size | Observed signal | FIR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK) | large | — · 7 Nov: 26 observed movements (1 dep / 25 arr), provisional, −91% vs a 274 median; 6 Nov: 285 on recount, step after 15:00 UTC; 8 Nov: 18 so far (3 / 15), partial; every hour since 00:00 UTC 7 Nov reads 0–3; weather routine; no closure notice in our set (refreshed to 1 Nov) | ZBPE |
| Tianjin Binhai International Airport (TSN) | large | 124 km · Same FIR, same feed: 366–427 a day on 28 Oct – 5 Nov, 411 on 6 Nov, 293 on 7 Nov (provisional, softest of the run), 8 Nov partial; low-altitude sample over Tianjin 104 reports on 7 Nov and 146 on 8 Nov against 125–160 on 1–6 Nov | ZBPE |
| Beijing Daxing International Airport (PKX) | large | 66 km · Not covered: our feed holds no movement counts for Daxing, and the independent network has logged 1 movement there since 9 Oct — we cannot say anything about traffic at Daxing | ZBPE |
Distance alone does not determine impact — wind direction and the flight levels the ash reaches decide which airports and routes are affected on a given day. FIR = Flight Information Region.
What our monitoring shows: a step overnight, at one airport — for the second time in six weeks
FlySafe tracks observed departures and arrivals at 493 airports from crowdsourced ADS-B receiver data. Observed counts are a floor, not a total — receiver coverage varies — but an airport measured against its own baseline is a reliable shape. Beijing Capital International's last 30 days:
Fig. 2 — Observed daily movements at PEK, 17 Oct – 7 Nov (latest complete UTC day). Data as of 9 Nov 2026, 03:50 UTC · PEK series settled through 5 Nov; 6 Nov plotted as a recount (stored row clipped at 214); 7 Nov provisional; 8 Nov partial, not plotted; NOTAM set refreshed to 1 Nov · Source: FlySafe monitoring (ADS-B receiver network).
- Baseline in our own feed: 274 observed movements/day (median of 17 Oct – 5 Nov, the days since the previous episode ended), range 139–362. The three previous Saturdays read 278, 347, 139.
- Sat 7 Nov: 26 — 1 departure, 25 arrivals, 17 of them with no recorded origin — 91% below the median. The detection layer fired at −88% against a 7-day average of 223. Provisional: it can still rise a little as later ingests arrive.
- 6 Nov: 285 on recount from the underlying flight records (the stored row, cut short by a routine partial refresh, holds 214) — an ordinary day until the evening.
- 8 Nov: 18 so far (3 departures, 15 arrivals), partial and not plotted; every hour reads 0–3.
- Departures vanished, the airport's flight numbers did not. Callsigns that departed Capital on 3–4 November were recorded taking off from Capital 61–114 times a day on 1–6 November; on 7 and 8 November, zero times. The same callsigns were still seen airborne with no recorded origin on 7 November (100 times, 79 sightings in all on 8 November so far) — fewer than the 230–275 total sightings a day before, so this test cannot by itself separate a gap in coverage from fewer flights.
- Precedent in this series: from 30 September our count at Capital fell to 9–36 a day for sixteen days and came back to 278 on 17 October in a single day. Its cause was never confirmed either.
Observed counts are a floor, not a total. Live view: PEK airport brief.
What it means for flights
A crowdsourced count can fall without any traffic falling. Observed movements are reconstructed from ADS-B receivers run by volunteers, then aggregated on our side. Around Beijing our feed never sees an aircraft below roughly 1,100 m, so it ties flights to Capital from the arrival and departure legs that distant receivers happen to catch. When one of those receivers goes offline, flights keep operating but our reconstruction stops attaching them to the runway: the number drops, the runway does not. That is why we publish observed counts as a floor, not a total, and why a −88% reading opens an investigation rather than a headline.
The shape: normal until the evening, then flat. Operational disruptions — weather, a runway closure, a restriction — tend to build through a schedule, leave knock-on delays and recover in stages. Our count did something else: 6 November matched 5 November block for block until 15:00 UTC (23:00 Beijing time), and from the early hours of 7 November local time every hour reads 0–3, day and night, with departures gone almost entirely (1 on 7 November). In the raw position sample, reports below 3,000 m over Capital fell from 161–190 a day on 1–6 November to 54 on 7 November and 56 on 8 November. That is the shape of a source switching off. It is suggestive, not proof — a real stoppage at a fixed time would also start abruptly.
The geography test: the hole is Capital's. If the whole region had gone quiet, the neighbours would show it. Tianjin Binhai, in the same FIR and the same feed, kept reading: 411 on 6 November and 293 on 7 November — provisional and the softest day of its 28 October – 7 November run, so we report it rather than wave it away, but nowhere near Capital's −91%. The low-altitude sample over Tianjin dipped on 7 November and was back to 146 reports on 8 November, while Capital's stayed at 56. Across a wide north-China box, distinct aircraft went from 1,388 on 6 November to 1,328 on 7 November and 1,310 on 8 November. Our worldwide table read 126,387 take-offs on Saturday 7 November against 128,535 the previous Saturday.
Weather, notices and closure signals. Capital's half-hourly weather reports were routine: 0 of 48 in instrument conditions on 6 November and 7 of 47 on 7 November, winds up to 10 kt — and on 4 November, when 35 of 49 reports were in instrument conditions, the count read 211. Our NOTAM set for the Beijing FIR holds 21 notices, including long-running ones on navigation aids, stands and works at Capital; none closes the aerodrome, a runway or airspace. That set was last refreshed on 1 November for every FIR, so it answers for the days up to 1 November and not for 6–8 November. Our detection layer has registered no closure event in ZBPE since a single-day, notice-only, low-confidence entry on 28 October. These are FIR-level observations, not statements about the airport.
Why we cannot confirm it — and what would. At most airports we check a drop like this against a second crowdsourced ADS-B network. At Capital that network is effectively blind: it holds 2 movements there since 9 October, and 1 at Daxing. So there is no independent count, and we do not claim one. The October episode is the closest guide we have: our count stepped down on 30 September, sat at 9–36 a day for sixteen days and returned to 278 on 17 October in a single day — a return consistent with a source coming back, though that cause was never confirmed either. A return of Capital's hourly count to its usual 14–29 in the daytime blocks is what would end this episode in our data. This automated multi-signal analysis surfaces anomalies like this one early and publishes what can and cannot be measured; the operating picture on any given day belongs to the airport, the airlines and the relevant authorities.
Passenger questions, answered from the data
Our data cannot confirm that. Our observed count at Capital fell from a 274/day median to 26 on 7 November after a step on the evening of 6 November (UTC), but nearby Tianjin, the wider north-China sample and our worldwide total kept reading, the weather was routine, and no notice in our NOTAM set for the Beijing FIR (last refreshed 1 November) closes the aerodrome or a runway. That pattern usually means lost receiver coverage rather than lost flights — but the independent network we would use to confirm it does not cover PEK. For a specific flight, check the airline and the PEK brief, which updates nightly.
Yes, in our own feed. From 30 September 2026 our count at Capital fell to 9–36 a day for sixteen days and came back to 278 on 17 October in a single day; the cause was never confirmed. That episode is archived on its own page. The November step has the same shape.
We cannot say. Our feed holds no movement counts for Daxing on any day, and the independent network has logged 1 movement there in a month. We make no claim about traffic at Daxing in either direction.
We do not make that call — we publish what our monitoring can and cannot measure. Here the measurement itself is in doubt, so the reading is not evidence of a disruption. Your airline and the airport are the authoritative sources for any flight.
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“Observed traffic at Beijing Capital International fell to 26 movements on 7 November 2026 in FlySafe's own crowdsourced ADS-B feed — 91% below its 274-a-day median — after a step on the evening of 6 November UTC, while neighbouring Tianjin and the wider north-China sample kept reading and no published notice in FlySafe's set closed the aerodrome; it is the second such step at the airport in six weeks, after a 30 September – 16 October episode that ended in a single day, and with no independent count at Capital the cause remains unconfirmed, according to flight-monitoring service FlySafe.zone.”
Boilerplate — about the source (for your article footer)
FlySafe.zone monitors airspace risk and observed airport activity worldwide: 334 flight-information regions scored daily, GPS-interference signals, volcanic-ash exposure and daily observed movements at 493 airports from the crowdsourced ADS-B receiver network. Methodology: flysafe.zone/methodology.
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