Is Turbulence Getting Worse?
Short answer: yes, severe clear-air turbulence has become more frequent on some major corridors over the past few decades, and the trend is consistent with climate model expectations. Longer answer: "turbulence" covers a spectrum, most of what passengers feel is not in the rising-severity category, and the practical response is wearing your seatbelt when seated. This guide gives you the realistic picture.
What the Research Actually Says
Published research by University of Reading and other meteorological groups shows that severe clear-air turbulence on the North Atlantic route corridor has increased materially over the past four decades, with additional trends documented on North Pacific and Asian corridors. The mechanism is well-understood: stronger upper-tropospheric wind shear from increased equator-to-pole temperature gradient in a warming atmosphere produces more CAT.
"Severe" here is the top category — the stuff that causes unrestrained passengers to hit the ceiling. Moderate and light turbulence are also increasing, but the relative shift toward severe matters most.
Is Flying Less Safe Now?
No. Aircraft are designed for turbulence loads far above what any commercial operation encounters. Turbulence-related injuries on commercial flights are overwhelmingly caused by people not wearing seatbelts when seated, not by turbulence damaging aircraft. No commercial airliner has been lost to turbulence in recent decades.
What has changed: crew procedures emphasise earlier seatbelt-sign discipline; cabin service policies in some airlines have become more conservative about when carts are allowed out; turbulence-forecast integration into flight planning has improved. See how CAT is forecast.
What You Should Do
- ›Keep your seatbelt on whenever seated. This is the single most important thing. Most turbulence injuries are to unrestrained passengers during unexpected CAT.
- ›Don't overestimate the change. Your chance of injury from turbulence is still very low in absolute terms.
- ›Trust crew direction. When crews ask passengers to sit down earlier than they did ten years ago, that is the forecast and response system working.
Informational. Not operational guidance. See Terms of Service.