Clear-Air Turbulence Forecasting
Clear-air turbulence (CAT) is turbulence that occurs outside cloud, invisible to weather radar. At cruise altitude, CAT is the dominant form of turbulence. Forecasting CAT is a computational and observational challenge; the current generation of tools combines high-resolution numerical weather models, aircraft-derived eddy dissipation rate reports, and AI-enhanced pattern recognition.
Key Tools
NOAA-developed diagnostic system combining multiple turbulence indices from NWP models. Provides 3D turbulence forecast grids for dispatch and in-flight use.
Aircraft-measured turbulence parameter. EDR reports from properly equipped aircraft are transmitted back through datalink and feed into short-range forecasts.
World Area Forecast Centre (London, Washington) produces global turbulence charts used by dispatchers worldwide.
WSI, Schedulers, Lufthansa Systems, and others offer commercial turbulence forecasting with route-specific delivery into flight decks.
Operational Integration
Pre-flight: dispatchers review turbulence forecasts along proposed routing; altitude and track may be adjusted. In-flight: turbulence products are available via ACARS and EFB; crews respond by adjusting altitude (climb / descent), requesting vector changes, or triggering seat-belt-sign procedures.
Research evidence indicates CAT incidence is rising on some major corridors, consistent with jet stream behaviour in a warming climate. Forecast fidelity continues to improve but CAT remains one of the harder forecast challenges in aviation meteorology.
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