Seasonal · outlook

Pacific Typhoon Season 2026

Peak: May–Oct 2026 · Sources: JMA · TSR · NOAA · China Meteorological Administration · Hong Kong Observatory · airport ops releases

TL;DR

The Western Pacific typhoon season operates year-round but concentrates between May and October. The 2026 season started unusually early: Tropical Storm Nokaen developed on 15 January (the first January named storm since Pabuk 2019), and the season's first typhoon Sinlaku reached typhoon status on 10 April, becoming the first super typhoon on 12 April. TSR's first 2026 forecast projected slightly above-average activity: 27 named storms, 17 typhoons, and 11 intense typhoons, citing potential moderate El Niño development in Q3. Recent precedent — Bebinca (the strongest typhoon to hit Shanghai since at least 1949, September 2024), Yagi (2024, Hainan and SE Asia), and Super Typhoon Ragasa (Hong Kong, September 2025) — demonstrates the operational pressure that May–October places on Northeast and Southeast Asian hubs. Hong Kong (HKG), Manila (MNL), Taipei (TPE), Tokyo (NRT/HND), Seoul (ICN), and Shanghai (PVG/SHA) sit at the centre of this corridor.

Peak season

May – Oct 2026

TSR forecast

27 named · 17 typh · 11 intense

Expected hubs affected

HKG · MNL · TPE · NRT · ICN · PVG

First super typhoon (2026)

Sinlaku — 12 Apr

Pre-season and early-season activity (2026)

15 JANUARY 2026

TS Nokaen — first January named storm since 2019

Nokaen developed on 15 January, marking the earliest start to a Western Pacific season since Pabuk 2019. Early-season activity rarely affects operations directly but signals a long active corridor.
10–12 APRIL 2026

Typhoon Sinlaku reaches typhoon status; becomes season's first super typhoon

Sinlaku intensified rapidly into the season's first typhoon (10 April) and first super typhoon (12 April). Pre-peak super typhoons are unusual and can put pressure on early-season carrier contingency planning.
APRIL 2026 — TSR FIRST FORECAST

Slightly above-average projection (27 / 17 / 11)

Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued its first 2026 forecast: 27 named storms, 17 typhoons, 11 intense typhoons. One driver cited is potential moderate El Niño development in Q3 2026. Lagged La Niña circulation patterns over the Northwest Pacific remain conducive to typhoon genesis and southeastern/southern China landfalls.

Historical aviation impact (2024–2025)

SEPTEMBER 2024 — TYPHOON YAGI

Hainan landfall; widespread regional cancellations

Yagi struck China's Hainan island and caused severe impact across Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand, Philippines). Hainan-based and South China carriers cancelled operations during the landfall window. Across the region, the storm's broad footprint forced reroutes around active convection.
SEPTEMBER 2024 — TYPHOON BEBINCA

Strongest typhoon to hit Shanghai since at least 1949

Shanghai's Pudong (PVG) and Hongqiao (SHA) airports cancelled hundreds of flights; Hangzhou (HGH) authorities cancelled more than 180 flights. Travel disruption coincided with the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. Flights, ferries, and rail services suspended across Shanghai and neighbouring provinces.
23 SEPTEMBER 2025 — SUPER TYPHOON RAGASA

Hong Kong No. 10 signal; HKG processed ~600 scheduled flights

Ragasa passed approximately 100 km south of Hong Kong, triggering the Hong Kong Observatory's highest No. 10 typhoon signal — shutting down the city. Hong Kong International Airport (HKG) handled approximately 600 scheduled flights across the disruption window per its own operational release, though significant delays and cancellations affected the network. Demonstrated HKG's mature continuity-of-operations posture.

Hub-specific operational considerations

Hub	FIR	Typical exposure window
HKG — Hong Kong	VHHK	Jul–Oct (South China Sea + Pacific tracks)
MNL — Manila	RPHI	Jul–Nov (frequent direct landfalls)
TPE — Taipei	RCAA	Jun–Oct (Taiwan terrain effects)
PVG / SHA — Shanghai	ZSHA	Aug–Sep (East China Sea + recurving systems; Bebinca-class precedent)
NRT / HND — Tokyo	RJTT	Aug–Oct (recurving systems towards Honshu)
ICN — Seoul	RKRR	Aug–Sep (post-recurvature, weakened systems)

For passengers

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Holiday-period exposure. Mid-Autumn Festival (varies by year), Golden Week (October in China), and Chuseok (Korea) compound the impact of typhoon-window disruption.
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Carrier waivers. Cathay Pacific, ANA, JAL, China Eastern, EVA Air, and others routinely issue typhoon travel waivers 24–48 hours before signal raise. Hong Kong Observatory signals (No. 3, 8, 10) are the de facto Hong Kong trigger.
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Connecting hubs. Disruption at a single Asian hub typically cascades because HKG, NRT, ICN, and TPE serve as transit nodes for transpacific and SE Asia traffic.
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Insurance and rebooking. See travel insurance vs credit-card cover.

For carriers and dispatchers

Pre-positioning: relocate aircraft and crews out of forecast track 24–48 hours before signal raise. HKG/PVG/MNL have established refuge-base patterns.
Pacific reroute corridors: Pacific transit traffic often reroutes around active typhoons via more northerly tracks, lengthening fuel burn and crew duty.
Ground operations: airports such as HKG maintain wind-resistant infrastructure and can sustain partial ops at lower signal levels; full lockdown only at No. 10 / equivalent.
Slot recovery: post-typhoon slot reallocation at congested hubs (HKG, NRT, PVG) takes 24–72 hours after operations resume; expect delay cascades.
Storm surge and rainfall: tail-end flooding at airports (e.g. PVG 2024) can outlast the wind threat by 24–48 hours.

Sources

Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) — RSMC Tokyo Typhoon Center advisories and tropical cyclone summaries
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) — Western North Pacific seasonal forecast (April 2026)
NOAA — Climate Prediction Center ENSO outlook; Pacific basin analysis
China Meteorological Administration — landfall reports and warnings
Hong Kong Observatory — typhoon signal advisories
Hong Kong International Airport — operational release on Super Typhoon Ragasa (23 Sep 2025)
CBS News / international press — Typhoon Bebinca Shanghai coverage (Sep 2024); Yagi regional impact
South China Morning Post — Ragasa live coverage (Sep 2025)

For airlines, OTAs, insurance underwriters

FlySafe publishes continuously-updated airspace indices for 270 regions / 424 of 428 globally covered subdivisions, including Northeast and Southeast Asian hubs. Storm-window operational indices update from public ADS-B telemetry and JMA / Hong Kong Observatory advisories.

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